I Repeat: There Is "Very Little Evidence of Voter Anger Towards Incumbents"

After a string of primary elections last month, media commentators robotically ran stories reporting the vulnerability of incumbent politicians. Blanche Lincoln's failure to capture 50% of the votes in a strong 3-way contest and Arlen Specter's failure to win his first shot as a Democrat provided the most often cited evidence of incumbent jeopardy. But aside from these two contests, there was very little evidence of incumbent vulnerability.

Now that Lincoln has won the run-off election, there is still very little tangible evidence of voter anger towards incumbents. Even if polls show discontent, this might not translate into election losses for incumbents. Furthermore, these losses might result from other factors, such as ideology.

So far, only a few incumbents have lost their bids to retain an existing office. It is unclear, however, whether these losses resulted from anti-incumbent rage. Specter's loss, as I have analyzed elsewhere, likely resulted because he could not convince faithful Democrats (the folks who vote in congressional primaries) to support him following his lifetime in politics as a Republican.

Furthermore, during last month's Arkansas primary, Lincoln simply failed to capture a majority of the votes in a strong 3-way contest. In addition, labor and other liberal groups provided ample cash for Bill Halter -- Lincoln's strongest challenger. Ultimately, however, Lincoln pulled off the victory.

Two Republicans lost reelection bids in Utah (Sen. Robert Bennett) and in Nevada (Gov. Jim Gibbons). Their defeats, however, probably result from ideology or political scandal.

In Nevada, Gov. Gibbons had to deal with a nasty divorce and allegations of adultery and sexual assault. Also, among Republicans, more conservative factions in the party have threatened or ousted establishment candidates who, after getting elected, represented an entire state and not merely the partisans who vote in primary elections. Rand Paul's effort to retool his image following his controversial statements about civil rights demonstrates that Tea Party politics might not have mainstream appeal.

It is difficult to predict what will happen electorally in November. Thus far, however, the media's anti-incumbent spin is greatly exaggerated.

Statement By White House Official Shows Contempt for Electoral Process

Ben Smith of Politico says that Rahm Emanuel a senior White House official called him last night and condemned labor unions for pumping money into the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary. Incumbent Blanche Lincoln, who had the support of President Obama and former President Bill Clinton, defeated challenger Bill Halter in a run-off election. Labor unions strongly backed Halter.

Lincoln opposes several initiatives backed by labor groups, and she has sparked criticism among more liberal factions in the Democratic Party. Despite all of the melodramatic reporting of a surge of anger against incumbents, Lincoln won the election 52%-48%.

Now that Lincoln has actually won the election, at least one of her supporters in the White House has begun to gloat. According to Smith, the unnamed White House official made the following analysis of union support for Halter:

Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members' money down the toilet on a pointless exercise. . .If even half that total had been well-targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November.

This reasoning is horrific on many levels. Most importantly, it shows a great disrespect for the political process. Although I do not believe it is inherently unethical for presidents to favor political candidates, the idea that private groups waste money by supporting their preferred candidates (as opposed to White House-endorsed contenders) shows great deal of contempt for the political process.

Eddie Vale, a spokesperson for the AFL-CIO had sharp words for the White House official. Vale says that the labor union is not beholden to Democratic Party:

If that's their take on this, then they severely misread how the electorate feels and how we're running our political program. . .When they say we should have targeted our money among some key house races among Blue Dog Democrats — that ain't happening."

Labor isn't an arm of the Democratic Party. . .It exists to support working families. And that's what we said tonight, and that's what we're gong to keep saying.

Amen.

Final Take
The White House quote looks like a signature Rahm Emanuel hit. Agreed?