A CNN poll purports to capture a wave of anti-incumbent fervor. An analysis of the poll, however, shows a significant contradiction in voter opinion.
According to the poll, only 34% of voters believe that members of Congress should be re-elected. But, when asked about their own representative, the number increases to 51% favoring re-election. Although the latter figure is the lowest since CNN has polled the question (the date of the first poll is not listed), it shows a substantial contradiction in voter attitudes.
Voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Congress and do not want its members re-elected. Despite this deep anti-incumbent fervor, voters still want to re-elect the members of Congress who represent them.
Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Major Flaw with Daily Kos Poll on Republican Ideology: No Context
Daily Kos has released a poll conducted by Research 2000 that purports to show extremist ideology among self-identified Republicans. The polling questions ask Republican voters to identify their positions on several social issues. Here are the results:
The poll, however, suffers in one tremendous respect: It does not provide comparative results for self-identified Democrats and Independents. So, while Kos and many Daily Kos readers believe that the poll proves the extremism among Republicans, it is difficult to make this conclusion without comparative data. At a minimum, comparative data would allow readers to understand the degree to which Republican viewpoints deviate from mainstream political thought.
Some Context
Polling data from other sources indicate that even though Republicans are more conservative, their views do not differ too dramatically from the rest of the population as Kos suggests. For example, the Daily Kos poll finds that 77% of Republicans oppose same-sex marriage. A May 2009 Gallup Poll, however, finds that nearly 60% of all Americans oppose same-sex marriage. A similar poll by Pew found that 54% of Americans oppose same-sex marriage. The Pew study found that an identical 77% of Republicans oppose same-sex marriage and that 41% of Democrats oppose it. In addition, the Pew study found that 55% of Independents opposed same-sex marriage, while only 34% supported it. Accordingly, while Republican views are predictably more conservative than Democrats, their views are not as extreme when compared with the attitudes of political independents.
In addition, the Daily Kos poll finds that 91% of Republicans support the death penalty. According to an October 2009 Gallup poll, a similarly high percentage of Republicans (81%) support the death penalty. Gallup, however, also finds that 2/3 of Americans support the death penalty, which means that Republican support does not differ dramatically from the general population. In the same Gallup survey, 67% of Independents and 47% of Democrats expressed support for the death penalty. Interestingly, when given a third option, such as life without parole (something that the Daily Kos poll does not provide), overall public support for the death penalty drops to 48%.
Finally, the Daily Kos poll finds that 76% of Republicans believe that abortion is murder. Generally, Republicans are typically pro-life rather than pro-choice. According to Gallup, 28% of Republicans versus 62% of Democrats are pro-choice. Generally, however, Americans are roughly divided in the "choice" and "life" camps (46% versus 47%). Nevertheless, only 21% of Americans believe that abortion should be legal regardless of the circumstances, which means that a significant number of "pro-choice" people accept the imposition of abortion restraints -- whether or not this same group would describe abortion as murder. Attitudes concerning abortion policy ultimately matter more than the label people use to describe the procedure. Also, Democratic support for abortion (at 62%) could support the argument that Democrats (in addition to Republicans) are "extreme."
Final Word: Although I concede that Republicans are more conservative, I also believe that the general population is more conservative than many liberals care to admit. This fact simply means that progressive political battles are difficult -- but not impossible -- to achieve. I hope that Daily Kos will supplement its interesting survey with data concerning Independents and Democrats.
Should Barack Obama be impeached, or not?In a post laced with editorial commentary, Markos Moulitsas says that the poll results are "nothing short of startling." Kos also concludes that:
Yes 39
No 32
Not Sure 29
Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist?
Yes 63
No 21
Not Sure 16
Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?
Yes 42
No 36
Not Sure 22
Do you believe Barack Obama wants the terrorists to win?
Yes 24
No 43
Not Sure 33
Do you believe ACORN stole the 2008 election?
Yes 21
No 24
Not Sure 55
Do you believe Sarah Palin is more qualified to be President than Barack Obama?
Yes 53
No 14
Not Sure 33
Do you believe Barack Obama is a racist who hates White people?
Yes 31
No 36
Not Sure 33
Do you believe your state should secede from the United States?
Yes 23
No 58
Not Sure 19
Should Congress make it easier for workers to form and join labor unions?
Yes 7
No 68
Not Sure 25
Would you favor or oppose giving illegal immigrants now living in the United States the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and learn English?
Favor 26
Oppose 59
Not Sure 15
Do you support the death penalty?
Yes 91
No 4
Not Sure 5
Should openly gay men and women be allowed to serve in the military?
Yes 26
No 55
Not Sure 19
Should same sex couples be allowed to marry?
Yes 7
No 77
Not Sure 16
Should gay couples receive any state or federal benefits?
Yes 11
No 68
Not Sure 21
Should openly gay men and women be allowed to teach in public schools?
Yes 8
No 73
Not Sure 19
Should sex education be taught in the public schools?
Yes 42
No 51
Not Sure 7
Should public school students be taught that the book of Genesis in the Bible explains how God created the world?
Yes 77
No 15
Not Sure 8
Are marrigiages equal partnerships, or are men the leaders of their households?
Men 13
Equal 76
Not Sure 11
Should women work outside the home?
Yes 86
No 4
Not Sure 10
Should contraceptive use be outlawed?
Yes 31
No 56
Not Sure 13
Do you believe the birth control pill is abortion?
Yes 34
No 48
Not Sure 18
Do you consider abortion to be murder?
Yes 76
No 8
Not Sure 16
Do you believe that the only way for an individual to go to heaven is though Jesus Christ, or can one make it to heaven through another faith?
Christ 67
Other 15
Not Sure 18
Ultimately, these results explain why it is impossible for elected Republicans to work with Democrats to improve our country. Their base are conspiracy mongers who don't believe Obama was born in the United States, that he is the second coming of Lenin, and that he is racist against white people. They already want to impeach him despite the glaringly obvious lack of high crimes or misdemeanors. If any Republican strays and decides to do the right thing and try to work in a bipartisan fashion, they suffer primaries and attacks. Even the Maine twins have quit cooperating out of fear of their homegrown teabaggers.Major Problem With the Poll: Lack of Context
The poll, however, suffers in one tremendous respect: It does not provide comparative results for self-identified Democrats and Independents. So, while Kos and many Daily Kos readers believe that the poll proves the extremism among Republicans, it is difficult to make this conclusion without comparative data. At a minimum, comparative data would allow readers to understand the degree to which Republican viewpoints deviate from mainstream political thought.
Some Context
Polling data from other sources indicate that even though Republicans are more conservative, their views do not differ too dramatically from the rest of the population as Kos suggests. For example, the Daily Kos poll finds that 77% of Republicans oppose same-sex marriage. A May 2009 Gallup Poll, however, finds that nearly 60% of all Americans oppose same-sex marriage. A similar poll by Pew found that 54% of Americans oppose same-sex marriage. The Pew study found that an identical 77% of Republicans oppose same-sex marriage and that 41% of Democrats oppose it. In addition, the Pew study found that 55% of Independents opposed same-sex marriage, while only 34% supported it. Accordingly, while Republican views are predictably more conservative than Democrats, their views are not as extreme when compared with the attitudes of political independents.
In addition, the Daily Kos poll finds that 91% of Republicans support the death penalty. According to an October 2009 Gallup poll, a similarly high percentage of Republicans (81%) support the death penalty. Gallup, however, also finds that 2/3 of Americans support the death penalty, which means that Republican support does not differ dramatically from the general population. In the same Gallup survey, 67% of Independents and 47% of Democrats expressed support for the death penalty. Interestingly, when given a third option, such as life without parole (something that the Daily Kos poll does not provide), overall public support for the death penalty drops to 48%.
Finally, the Daily Kos poll finds that 76% of Republicans believe that abortion is murder. Generally, Republicans are typically pro-life rather than pro-choice. According to Gallup, 28% of Republicans versus 62% of Democrats are pro-choice. Generally, however, Americans are roughly divided in the "choice" and "life" camps (46% versus 47%). Nevertheless, only 21% of Americans believe that abortion should be legal regardless of the circumstances, which means that a significant number of "pro-choice" people accept the imposition of abortion restraints -- whether or not this same group would describe abortion as murder. Attitudes concerning abortion policy ultimately matter more than the label people use to describe the procedure. Also, Democratic support for abortion (at 62%) could support the argument that Democrats (in addition to Republicans) are "extreme."
Final Word: Although I concede that Republicans are more conservative, I also believe that the general population is more conservative than many liberals care to admit. This fact simply means that progressive political battles are difficult -- but not impossible -- to achieve. I hope that Daily Kos will supplement its interesting survey with data concerning Independents and Democrats.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Investor's Business Daily: Shoddy Healthcare "Poll"
Today, Investor's Business Daily released a poll that purports to demonstrate that 2/3 of doctors oppose healthcare reform and that 45% of them would consider closing their medical practice if the reform passes. The poll contradicts many recent surveys that show strong support among doctors for healthcare reform -- including passage of a public plan option.
Why does the IBD poll differ so greatly from other recent polls? The problem lies in the pollster's methodology.
Earlier today, a reader sent me a copy of the poll, but I was too busy to write a response. Fortunately, Nate Silver and Media Matters have taken up the task, which minimizes the amount of time required to dissect this partisan hatchet job.
Here is Silver's analysis:
Media Matters adds some other tidbits about IBD:
Be careful reading. And as always, consider the source!
Why does the IBD poll differ so greatly from other recent polls? The problem lies in the pollster's methodology.
Earlier today, a reader sent me a copy of the poll, but I was too busy to write a response. Fortunately, Nate Silver and Media Matters have taken up the task, which minimizes the amount of time required to dissect this partisan hatchet job.
Here is Silver's analysis:
1. The survey was conducted by mail, which is unusual. [Dissenting Justice: It is also unreliable. With a mail-in survey it is more difficult to prevent multiple responses from one individual or to make sure that only the target sample (doctors) complete the survey.]
2. At least one of the questions is blatantly biased: "Do you believe the government can cover 47 million more people and it will cost less money and the quality of care will be better?" Holy run-on-sentence, Batman. A pollster who asks a question like this one is not intending to be objective.
3. As we learned during the Presidential campaign -- when, among other things, they had John McCain winning the youth vote 74-22 -- the IBD/TIPP polling operation has literally no idea what they're doing. . . .
4. They say, somewhat ambiguously: "Responses are still coming in." This is also highly unorthodox. [Dissenting Justice: It also makes the poll unreliable. No one knows how the full tally will look without a basis for projecting the results.]
5. There is virtually no disclosure about methodology. For example, IBD doesn't bother to define the term "practicing physician". . . .Nor do they explain how their randomization procedure worked, provide the entire question battery, or anything like that.
Media Matters adds some other tidbits about IBD:
Reading Investor's Business Daily editorials can have something of a cathartic effect. After doggedly researching and fact-checking the dubiously nuanced claims of more sophisticated misinformers, it can be sometimes fun to take a (brief) dip into their troubled fantasy land where even the most fevered conspiracy theories can leap from the pages of FreeRepublic and get their brief, shining moment in the sun. Consider that IBD has implausibly claimed that the House health care bill would outlaw private insurance, absurdly claimed that Colombian terrorists had an inside line to President Obama's campaign, and outright racistly claimed that Obama would put the interests of his "tribe" ahead of national interests.
Be careful reading. And as always, consider the source!
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
New Poll: 73% of Doctors Favor Socialized Medicine, Rationing of Care, Death Panels, Nazism, and Pulling Plug on Grandma
A new poll conducted by researchers at the Mt. Sinai School of Medicine in New York shows that 73% of doctors favor socialized medicine, rationing of care, death panels, Nazism, and pulling the plug on grandma. Actually, they favor some type of public plan option as a part of healthcare reform. 10% of doctors want a public-only format, while 63% favor a public-private mix. Only 27% want a private-only system.
Conservatives have described a public plan option as socialized medicine, a governmental takeover of healthcare, Nazism, and several other horribly deceptive labels. The providers of medical care, however, overwhelmingly support a public plan option.
It is time for the country to listen to medical professionals, rather than angry and uninformed people marching around with disgusting and tasteless signs (suggestive of racism and violence) and shouting deceptive propaganda while returning home to worship Jesus. I certainly trust doctors more than this motley crew.
Conservatives have described a public plan option as socialized medicine, a governmental takeover of healthcare, Nazism, and several other horribly deceptive labels. The providers of medical care, however, overwhelmingly support a public plan option.
It is time for the country to listen to medical professionals, rather than angry and uninformed people marching around with disgusting and tasteless signs (suggestive of racism and violence) and shouting deceptive propaganda while returning home to worship Jesus. I certainly trust doctors more than this motley crew.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Do Early Voters Favor Obama? Yes, With Caveats
CBS News reports that early voters favor Obama over McCain 57-38. This survey is consistent with many other polls that also show the Democratic contender leading as election day approaches.
Sifting Through the Data
Although the poll shows a clear advantage for Obama, a closer look at the data reveals that much of the lead stems from a disprortionate share of traditional Democrats among early voters. The poll, for example, samples 50% registered Democratic voters but only 30% Republican voters. Also, women comprise 60% of the sample, while blacks comprise 16%; both figures exceed the expected share of the overall pool of likely voters for the two demographic groups (and these groups tend to vote for Democrats). Finally, not surprisingly, more of the voters in the sample chose Kerry over Bush. Although this poll confirms the safe assumption that Obama leads among early voters, the results do not mean that Tuesday's vote will mirror pre-election findings.
Sifting Through the Data
Although the poll shows a clear advantage for Obama, a closer look at the data reveals that much of the lead stems from a disprortionate share of traditional Democrats among early voters. The poll, for example, samples 50% registered Democratic voters but only 30% Republican voters. Also, women comprise 60% of the sample, while blacks comprise 16%; both figures exceed the expected share of the overall pool of likely voters for the two demographic groups (and these groups tend to vote for Democrats). Finally, not surprisingly, more of the voters in the sample chose Kerry over Bush. Although this poll confirms the safe assumption that Obama leads among early voters, the results do not mean that Tuesday's vote will mirror pre-election findings.
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