Spookiest State Polls of the Day (Take One): Minnesota and Montana

In an earlier blog entry, I discussed the wide variation among the results of the latest national polls. Now, state polling data from Minnesota and Montana also show peculiar results.

Survey USA, a highly accurate and reputable pollster, released a poll today which shows Obama leading McCain in Minnesota by only 3 points. Because the lead fits within the margin of error, the race is statistically tied. Furthermore, because 2% of voters report being undecided, the Minnesota race is truly a tossup if this poll is accurate.

Moving to the West, the latest release from Public Policy Polling shows Obama with a one-point lead over McCain. The results of this poll also lie within the margin of error. In this poll, Obama receives a tremendous boost from early and younger voters. Among election-day voters, McCain has a sizable lead.

The Minnesota poll is consistent with an IBD-TIPP poll which, contrary to most other surveys, shows McCain closing in or leading in the Midwest, while the Montana results, if correct, would substantiate Obama's claim of success in the West. Although conventional wisdom predicts a landslide victory for Democrats, the race could actually end up as a thriller.

Last-Minute Polls All Over the Place, But Obama Leads in Virtually All of Them

The final round of presidential election polls offer nothing certain about Tuesday's results -- except that Obama leads in all of them. Despite Obama's consistent lead, the polls show a lot of variance, and the "fine print" often raises more questions.

Variation

Although the presidential election is really a series of state-to-state contests, the national popular vote polls can provide some indication of the overall sentiment of voters. The nationwide polls, however, lack uniformity: they either show that the race is very close or tied or that Obama will win in a landslide.

The most recent CBS poll, for example, has Obama up by 13 points (54-41), but Obama leads by only 2 points (47-45) in the final IBD/TIPP poll. Last week, Pew reported that Obama had a 12-point lead; today, the pollster gave Obama a comfortable, but much smaller, lead of 6 points. Overall, the Pollster.Com average of all the major polls has Obama up by 6 points nationally.

Fine Print

Reading the details in some of the polls only makes things even more confusing -- or interesting, depending upon your perspective. In the Pew poll, for example, people who have "already voted" favor Obama 52-39. The remaining 9% are in a category "undecided/other." I assume that people who have already voted are not undecided about how they voted. On the other hand, I cannot imagine what "other" candidate could garner 9% of the national vote among early voters. Furthermore, despite Obama's lead among those who have already voted, the Pew poll actually shows McCain winning among election-day voters 46-45. A significant amount of likely voters remain undecided, which I find baffling.

In an earlier post, I analyzed the CBS poll that gives Obama a 13-point lead. In that poll, Obama leads among early voters, but 50 percent of early voters in that survey are Democrats, 60% are women, and 16% are black -- which explains Obama's substantial lead.

The TIPP poll, co-sponsored by IBD (or Investor's Business Daily) does not provide the racial demographics of the individuals it polled (which is a startling omission). In that poll, a large degree of voters also remain undecided. For example, 11% of "northeastern" and 12% of "midwestern" voters have not picked a candidate yet, according to the poll. Interestingly, the pollster has a "hot topic" poll which seeks to determine whether Americans are "ready for socialism." The results will shock you (not really).

Pretty soon, the only relevant polls -- the election-day results -- will give us an actual winner, and pundits will drown us with repetitive and unlearned commentary about the returns. Until then, the poll-obsessed readers can only speculate about the accuracy of the pre-election data. For a great resource in this process, visit the presidential polling site on Pollster.Com.

Speaking of Erratic....More Wildly Disparate Polls

If the constant movement in the polls has you confused, you are not alone. Every time I hear McCain saying that he will win, or that his campaign is exactly where it needs to be, I think he is foolishly channeling Rudy Giuliani. But maybe he is only reading the few polls that favor him. Today's Rasmussen poll has the race within 5 points, while GWU is within 3 points. Today's Hotline poll has Obama up 12 points, while Daily Kos has him 8 points ahead. For most of last week, Obama had a pretty sizable lead. For more extensive coverage and debate, see Pollster.Com.

Joe Mo'? AP Poll Has Obama with Mere One-Point Lead; McCain Gains Sharply Among White Middle-Class Voters

The Associated Press has released a stunning poll, which shows that McCain has closed the gap in the presidential race to a mere one point. Ever since the Lehman Bros. implosion, Obama has led in all major polls. But last week, many polls suggested that the race contracted a bit, although results from earlier this week again reflected a large lead for Obama. In addition to the close AP poll, today's GWU Battleground survey shows a two-point race. In most polls, however, Obama has a very comfortable lead.

In the AP poll, McCain's gains were primarily among white middle-class voters. Perhaps McCain is experiencing "Joe Mo'." But the presidential election is a state-to-state race, and a majority of the polls show Obama leading in most of the swing states. Despite Obama's persistent lead in the swing states, Democratic Governor Charles Rendell of Pennslvania has urged Obama to return to the state, along with Bill Clinton, and McCain has committed a lot of resources to winning Pennsylvania. These facts have caused some analysts to question whether the Hershey state is tighter than the polls demonstrate. Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic contender in each election since 1988, but Kerry only won the state by 2.5% over President Bush. A surge of new Democratic registrants, however, bodes very well for Obama.