Several polls have shown the presidential race tightening since the last debate between the candidates. Gallup, Rasmussen, GWU, ARG, and even the Daily Kos poll shows McCain closing in on Obama's lead that emerged and expanded during the financial meltdown on Wall Street.
Gallup Poll. Gallup has three different poll results. The three polls track "registered voters," "likely voters" under traditional data," and "likely voters" using expanded data. The poll of traditional likely voters patterns the demographics of voters in recent elections. The expanded data likely voters poll tries to predict how Obama's candidacy might alter the landscape, with more persons of color and younger people voting. Obama would naturally have a stronger showing in this last category. Gallup shows: Registered voters, Obama 50, McCain 42; Likely Voters (Traditional), Obama 49, McCain 47; Likely Voters (Expanded) Obama 50, McCain 46. This is the first time I have seen Obama's lead in the expanded category differ much from the registered voter statistic.
Rasmussen: Rasmussen Reports keeps it simpler by just reporting one result: likely voters. That poll has Obama 50, McCain 46.
Daily Kos: Daily Kos, the liberal blog that created the Palin's daughter-baby mama drama, sponsors a poll conducted by Research 2000. In the Daily Kos poll, Obama leads McCain 50 to 43 among likely voters. Just one week ago, the same poll showed Obama leading by 12 points.
ARG: The ARG poll has Obama up by 5 over McCain, 50 to 45 among likely voters. The previous ARG poll had the race even closer (a 4-point spread), but it was considered a definite outlier at the time.
GWU: GWU's presidential poll has tightened substantially. Now, Obama leads McCain 49 to 45 among likely voters.
If you consider traditional likely voters (Gallup), the poll race is as close as two points. Even assuming the accuracy of the 5-point spread that appears consistently at many pollsters, a mere shift of 2.5 percent makes the national race a tie. Perhaps this caused Obama earlier this week to caution his supporters not to "get cocky."
Gallup Poll. Gallup has three different poll results. The three polls track "registered voters," "likely voters" under traditional data," and "likely voters" using expanded data. The poll of traditional likely voters patterns the demographics of voters in recent elections. The expanded data likely voters poll tries to predict how Obama's candidacy might alter the landscape, with more persons of color and younger people voting. Obama would naturally have a stronger showing in this last category. Gallup shows: Registered voters, Obama 50, McCain 42; Likely Voters (Traditional), Obama 49, McCain 47; Likely Voters (Expanded) Obama 50, McCain 46. This is the first time I have seen Obama's lead in the expanded category differ much from the registered voter statistic.
Rasmussen: Rasmussen Reports keeps it simpler by just reporting one result: likely voters. That poll has Obama 50, McCain 46.
Daily Kos: Daily Kos, the liberal blog that created the Palin's daughter-baby mama drama, sponsors a poll conducted by Research 2000. In the Daily Kos poll, Obama leads McCain 50 to 43 among likely voters. Just one week ago, the same poll showed Obama leading by 12 points.
ARG: The ARG poll has Obama up by 5 over McCain, 50 to 45 among likely voters. The previous ARG poll had the race even closer (a 4-point spread), but it was considered a definite outlier at the time.
GWU: GWU's presidential poll has tightened substantially. Now, Obama leads McCain 49 to 45 among likely voters.
If you consider traditional likely voters (Gallup), the poll race is as close as two points. Even assuming the accuracy of the 5-point spread that appears consistently at many pollsters, a mere shift of 2.5 percent makes the national race a tie. Perhaps this caused Obama earlier this week to caution his supporters not to "get cocky."
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