As the presidential election day approaches, the race continues to shift to Democrat Barack Obama. Although Obama has almost always led McCain, following the Republican National Convention, the polls shifted significantly to McCain. But the electoral landscape has abruptly changed in recent weeks. There are several factors that explain this transition, some of which McCain can control, others that he cannot. But overall, his campaign seems unable to create traction. Here's why things have gone bad for McCain.
1. Economy
Clearly the economy has had a tremendous -- if not the most -- impact upon his campaign. McCain was leading in the polls until several large financial institutions imploded. After that time, things began to favor Obama. Historically, voters blame incumbents for poor economic conditions, rightfully or wrongfully. And they are clearly blaming McCain and the Republicans for the current state of affairs. I think both parties share the blame for the credit crisis; FactCheck.Org agrees. McCain has not effectively communicated this.
2. Sarah Palin
Sarah Palin has also caused problems for McCain. Although her addition to the ticket initially invigorated McCain's campaign, subsequent poor performances during media interviews and also (probably overdone) negative scrutiny by the media turned her into a liability. Several conservative commentators demanded that McCain remove her from the ticket. Palin, however, was able to alleviate many concerns voters had with her candidacy with a good performance at the Vice Presidential debate. Her favorable numbers improved dramatically. Despite this, concerns linger.
3. Republican Exhaustion
Republican exhaustion can also account for McCain's bad luck. Party dominance is cyclical at the national level. The Republicans have dominated the White House since 1964 -- which started at 44-year stretch with only 16 years in which a Democrat occupied the White House. Obama's change theme works very well with party exhaustion, and McCain has been unable to revitalize interest in Republicans.
4. Forgoing "Experience" Argument
McCain's campaign has also failed to take advantage of a few opportunities to shift the electorate. First, by picking Palin he essentially removed the "experience" theme from his campaign, which gave his campaign a coherent narrative.
5. Failure to Distinguish Himself from Bush
McCain has also failed to show that he is not Bush III and that he is a "maverick." While many members of my party would say that's because he is Bush III, like most things in politics, it's all about a narrative. For example, McCain recently proposed a mortgage plan, which Obama and the media have bashed. But he could have at least used that moment to say that he, unlike Bush and many others in his party, knows that government has a role in helping society. He could have also said that he, unlike Bush, is not afraid to reconsider his opinions about the role of government in society. Instead, his plan lacks a marketing narrative at all. Obama's plans, on the other hand, always do. Aided by the media in large part, he announces a "major policy speech" on any given subject and grabs headlines. I do not agree with Obama that McCain is erratic, but I do believe that without a narrative, voters cannot connect his proposals.
McCain and the Republican leadership could have agreed that he would go after Bush on a few important policy areas on which he has disagreed with Bush (e.g., environmental policy, corporate ethical reform, campaign finance, etc.). Instead, he has been stunningly silent on the details of his "maverickness," which makes the whole them ineffective.
6. Failure to Question Obama, via Biden, on Iraq
Although the economy has for a long time overshadowed the Iraq War in importance to voters, Obama continues to say that McCain exercised bad judgment voting for the war. McCain has responded primarily by arguing that his support of the surge and continued funding of the troops demonstrates that he can win a war (unlike Obama or Bush). But McCain has not emphasized Joe Biden's vote on the war at all, which seems to call into question Obama's war critique. Although Palin accused Biden of waffling on the war during the Vice Presidential debate, when Obama said McCain's war vote reflected poor judgment during the second presidential debate, McCain failed to mention Biden's vote at all, squandering an opportunity to question the sincerity of Obama's war critique.
7. Embedded Media
Finally, the media have made it more difficult for McCain and easier for Obama. I am not saying that the media have thrown the election to Obama. But I am acknowledging that for the most part, coverage favors Obama more. This began during the primaries, and Tina Fey brought the issue to national attention. Keith Olbermann's blood-faced rants, Chris Matthews's "tingly thighs," and the legion of opinion writers in the major papers (e.g., E.J. Dionne, Frank Rich, Dana Milbank, Maureen Dowd, and Eugene Robinson) who churned out weekly pro-Obama essays most likely helped shape public opinion regarding Obama. I am not saying that he does not deserve a great reputation, but that free publicity from authoritative media goes a long way towards constructing a positive image. By contrast, a litany of negative press (from these same influential media sources) can damage a candidate's reputation among voters.
The recent scuffle over McCain's mortgage plan provides a good example of likely media bias. The media have intensely scrutinized the plan -- as they should -- but they have primarily just reported Obama's objections to the plan. More importantly, they have not asked Obama what he would do to fix the problem. During the bailout discussions, the media questioned whether McCain had a plan or a role in the negotiations. The bailout actually authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to purchase individual mortgages, but leaves it to the Secretary to devise a method for valuing the mortgages and assisting homeowners. McCain has at least given us a window into what he would do -- whether this is purely political or otherwise. Obama has not, and the media have not demanded that he do so. I also don't recall the media inquiring about Obama's role in the bailout negotiations.
This is not the first election in which the media have shown a candidate preference. They turned Gore into a laughingstock -- ridiculing him for "gaffes" that upon further examination, weren't gaffes at all. During my youth, they loved Reagan (the "Great Communicator") and bashed Carter on the economy and Iran, although much of the economic peril in the country resulted from factors outside of the control of the president, like the very dramatic (and almost overnight) increase in the price of oil. They never challenged voters on the relevance of Dukakis looking goofy in an Army tank and his ability to govern the nation. And beyond election campaigns, the media were literally "in the tank" with the White House during the Iraq War. If the media can embed themselves with the Bush administration to clamor for access, why wouldn't they do the same during a political campaign?
Can He Do It?
The odds are stacked against McCain at the moment, but some commentators say that he could still pull off a comeback. I am not convinced. I do not see an effective strategy by McCain, and I am not sure what he could do to neutralize the media. Calling them out as biased seems to have made them worse.
1. Economy
Clearly the economy has had a tremendous -- if not the most -- impact upon his campaign. McCain was leading in the polls until several large financial institutions imploded. After that time, things began to favor Obama. Historically, voters blame incumbents for poor economic conditions, rightfully or wrongfully. And they are clearly blaming McCain and the Republicans for the current state of affairs. I think both parties share the blame for the credit crisis; FactCheck.Org agrees. McCain has not effectively communicated this.
2. Sarah Palin
Sarah Palin has also caused problems for McCain. Although her addition to the ticket initially invigorated McCain's campaign, subsequent poor performances during media interviews and also (probably overdone) negative scrutiny by the media turned her into a liability. Several conservative commentators demanded that McCain remove her from the ticket. Palin, however, was able to alleviate many concerns voters had with her candidacy with a good performance at the Vice Presidential debate. Her favorable numbers improved dramatically. Despite this, concerns linger.
3. Republican Exhaustion
Republican exhaustion can also account for McCain's bad luck. Party dominance is cyclical at the national level. The Republicans have dominated the White House since 1964 -- which started at 44-year stretch with only 16 years in which a Democrat occupied the White House. Obama's change theme works very well with party exhaustion, and McCain has been unable to revitalize interest in Republicans.
4. Forgoing "Experience" Argument
McCain's campaign has also failed to take advantage of a few opportunities to shift the electorate. First, by picking Palin he essentially removed the "experience" theme from his campaign, which gave his campaign a coherent narrative.
5. Failure to Distinguish Himself from Bush
McCain has also failed to show that he is not Bush III and that he is a "maverick." While many members of my party would say that's because he is Bush III, like most things in politics, it's all about a narrative. For example, McCain recently proposed a mortgage plan, which Obama and the media have bashed. But he could have at least used that moment to say that he, unlike Bush and many others in his party, knows that government has a role in helping society. He could have also said that he, unlike Bush, is not afraid to reconsider his opinions about the role of government in society. Instead, his plan lacks a marketing narrative at all. Obama's plans, on the other hand, always do. Aided by the media in large part, he announces a "major policy speech" on any given subject and grabs headlines. I do not agree with Obama that McCain is erratic, but I do believe that without a narrative, voters cannot connect his proposals.
McCain and the Republican leadership could have agreed that he would go after Bush on a few important policy areas on which he has disagreed with Bush (e.g., environmental policy, corporate ethical reform, campaign finance, etc.). Instead, he has been stunningly silent on the details of his "maverickness," which makes the whole them ineffective.
6. Failure to Question Obama, via Biden, on Iraq
Although the economy has for a long time overshadowed the Iraq War in importance to voters, Obama continues to say that McCain exercised bad judgment voting for the war. McCain has responded primarily by arguing that his support of the surge and continued funding of the troops demonstrates that he can win a war (unlike Obama or Bush). But McCain has not emphasized Joe Biden's vote on the war at all, which seems to call into question Obama's war critique. Although Palin accused Biden of waffling on the war during the Vice Presidential debate, when Obama said McCain's war vote reflected poor judgment during the second presidential debate, McCain failed to mention Biden's vote at all, squandering an opportunity to question the sincerity of Obama's war critique.
7. Embedded Media
Finally, the media have made it more difficult for McCain and easier for Obama. I am not saying that the media have thrown the election to Obama. But I am acknowledging that for the most part, coverage favors Obama more. This began during the primaries, and Tina Fey brought the issue to national attention. Keith Olbermann's blood-faced rants, Chris Matthews's "tingly thighs," and the legion of opinion writers in the major papers (e.g., E.J. Dionne, Frank Rich, Dana Milbank, Maureen Dowd, and Eugene Robinson) who churned out weekly pro-Obama essays most likely helped shape public opinion regarding Obama. I am not saying that he does not deserve a great reputation, but that free publicity from authoritative media goes a long way towards constructing a positive image. By contrast, a litany of negative press (from these same influential media sources) can damage a candidate's reputation among voters.
The recent scuffle over McCain's mortgage plan provides a good example of likely media bias. The media have intensely scrutinized the plan -- as they should -- but they have primarily just reported Obama's objections to the plan. More importantly, they have not asked Obama what he would do to fix the problem. During the bailout discussions, the media questioned whether McCain had a plan or a role in the negotiations. The bailout actually authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to purchase individual mortgages, but leaves it to the Secretary to devise a method for valuing the mortgages and assisting homeowners. McCain has at least given us a window into what he would do -- whether this is purely political or otherwise. Obama has not, and the media have not demanded that he do so. I also don't recall the media inquiring about Obama's role in the bailout negotiations.
This is not the first election in which the media have shown a candidate preference. They turned Gore into a laughingstock -- ridiculing him for "gaffes" that upon further examination, weren't gaffes at all. During my youth, they loved Reagan (the "Great Communicator") and bashed Carter on the economy and Iran, although much of the economic peril in the country resulted from factors outside of the control of the president, like the very dramatic (and almost overnight) increase in the price of oil. They never challenged voters on the relevance of Dukakis looking goofy in an Army tank and his ability to govern the nation. And beyond election campaigns, the media were literally "in the tank" with the White House during the Iraq War. If the media can embed themselves with the Bush administration to clamor for access, why wouldn't they do the same during a political campaign?
Can He Do It?
The odds are stacked against McCain at the moment, but some commentators say that he could still pull off a comeback. I am not convinced. I do not see an effective strategy by McCain, and I am not sure what he could do to neutralize the media. Calling them out as biased seems to have made them worse.
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